The "Great Un-Pause" of 2026

If 2024 was the year of "Wait and See" and 2025 was the year of "Slow Stabilization," 2026 is officially the year of the "Great Un-Pause." For the first time in nearly four years, we are seeing synchronized movement across the Southern California market.

Mortgage rates have found a "comfortable" floor in the low 6% range, and the psychological barrier that kept homeowners locked into their 3% rates is finally eroding. Families who have outgrown their starter homes are no longer willing to put their lives on hold. As we move into 2026, the "Lock-in Effect" has officially thawed, but the impact varies wildly depending on your zip code.

2026 Price & Volume Predictions by Region

1. Palos Verdes Estates (The Sanctuary Home)

Expect PVE to lead in luxury appreciation as the "Sanctuary Home" remains the ultimate trophy for C-suite executives.

• The Valmonte Anomaly: While other areas are still waiting for listings, Valmonte has already seen a significant surge in activity. It has become the most active "micro-market" on the Peninsula, serving as the primary bridge for families moving up from the Beach Cities.
• Forecast: 4.5% to 6% appreciation; high volume in Valmonte; lower velocity but higher price points in Malaga Cove and Lunada Bay.

2. Torrance & Redondo (The Core Engine)

These areas remain the most competitive for "Move-Up" buyers. With Redondo Beach seeing median price growth of over 10% in late 2025, the momentum is carrying into 2026.

• The Strategy: Buyers are prioritizing "Indoor-Outdoor Flow" and home offices. In North Redondo, "A+" turnkey properties are still going into escrow in under 10 days, while dated properties are sitting longer, providing opportunities for savvy renovators.
• Forecast: 3.5% to 5% appreciation; steady inventory growth; high buyer sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.

3. Manhattan Beach (The Resilient Standard)

Contrary to common belief, the stats don't show an inventory bottleneck here; rather, they show a high-velocity, healthy market. In neighborhoods like the Tree Section, we’ve seen a 40%+ increase in the number of homes sold year-over-year as of late 2025.

• The Buyer Profile: High-net-worth individuals are moving from Pacific Palisades and Brentwood, keeping demand for the $4M+ price point robust.
• Forecast: 4% to 5.5% appreciation; balanced inventory with steady sales; continued dominance of the Tree and Sand Sections.

4. Holly Glen & Del Aire (The Aerospace Hub)

2026 is the year of "Inland Luxury" in Hawthorne. These neighborhoods are no longer just "alternatives"—they are the primary choice for SpaceX and tech professionals.

• The Efficiency: Homes in Holly Glen are selling in an average of 16 days (compared to 38 last year). With median prices around $1.2M–$1.5M, this area provides the Beach City lifestyle at a relative discount.
• Forecast: 5% to 7% appreciation (likely the highest percentage gain in the South Bay); extremely fast turnover; rising "off-market" activity.

The "Election Hangover" is Over

Historically, real estate cycles in Southern California see a dip in activity during election years. With that uncertainty behind us, 2026 is seeing a release of pent-up capital. International investors are returning to the coastal markets, and local move-up buyers are finally acting on the record equity they’ve built over the last decade.

Summary: Should You Move Now?

Waiting for a "market crash" in the South Bay has historically been a losing bet. The combination of limited land, high demand from the aerospace sector, and the 2026 economic rebound makes this a "strike while the iron is hot" moment.

Pro Tip: If you are buying, look for "dated but clean" properties. In a market where everyone wants "turnkey," the real equity is built in the homes that just need a cosmetic refresh—especially in high-volume areas like Valmonte and North Redondo.